I saw a glimpse of the interview of Taiwan’s President about 2 weeks ago CNN. I didn’t pay that much attention to most of the interview, just absorbed a small part of it.
‘Mainland China War Plans’
Basically, what he was saying is that they have intelligence information that China was embarking on a 3-phase armed forces improvement program starting 2007, & ending in 2015. The goal of the program, was for China to be able to upgrade its military capability by 2015 so that it will be enough to ENSURE victory over Taiwan.
Of course, this was the Taiwan President talking, not China, but, it goes to show, that tensions between those 2 countries continue to be very high.
IF, China does invade Taiwan, then it is very likely the US will be drawn into the war, judging by their previous actions when it comes to tensions between China & Taiwan. This was most evident when US Carrier Battle Groups steamed for Taiwan when Beijing started having missile flight tests around Taiwan during the Clinton Administration.
Then again, a war between the US & China will likely hurt both countries economically. Right now, the US is China’s biggest customer, so any problems that could affect business between these 2 countries, like a Taiwan-China War, will likely severely affect the economies of both the US & China. So, for China, it would be like hitting its own head w/ a stone.
But China could also say the same for the US: If the US decides to fight China, IT, too, could be severely affected economically. Will the US really allow that to happen, for a country like Taiwan? That, could serve as a deterrent, for the US to engage China in an armed conflict.
With China emerging as the US’ main rival as a superpower, you can expect it to eventually have some form of a showdown w/ the US within the next century or so. I think that, is a CERTAINTY.
For our part, the Philippines is strategically located near Taiwan & China, so whether we like it or not, we will likely end up embroiled in such a conflict SOMEHOW. So, this should shape our future strategic planning & policies when it comes to China.
Some points regarding this would be:
– I feel that trade relations between China & the Philippines should continue & fluorish, but these should be mainly limited to strictly BUSINESS only, & that sensitive electronics & military hardware should be strictly off limits.
– We should build up our external defenses also to within respectable levels. We may not be able to match military capability w/ a superpower like China, but, still the same, we need to be able to have at least some form of deterrent capability against China.